Montevideo Wanderers vs C.A. Progreso: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Montevideo Wanderersvs
C.A. ProgresoThe model puts Montevideo Wanderers at 48%. The model leans toward Montevideo Wanderers. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Montevideo Wanderers.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Montevideo Wanderers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- C.A. Progreso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Montevideo Wanderers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Montevideo Wanderers is priced at 2.015.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Montevideo Wanderers at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts C.A. Progreso at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Montevideo Wanderers. Montevideo Wanderers is priced at 2.015. The draw is priced at 3.3. C.A. Progreso is priced at 3.695.
Montevideo Wanderers have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. C.A. Progreso have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Montevideo Wanderers have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Montevideo Wanderers are on 3 wins in a row. C.A. Progreso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Montevideo Wanderers or C.A. Progreso?
Our model rates Montevideo Wanderers as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Montevideo Wanderers vs C.A. Progreso?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Montevideo Wanderers wins, 2 draws, 2 C.A. Progreso wins.
League table
Uruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 4 |  Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:2 | 5 |
| 6 |  Club Atletico Boston River | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 7 |  C.A. Cerro | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 3 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.