USA vs Belgium: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
USAvs
BelgiumThe model puts Belgium at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Belgium.
- +The head-to-head record favours Belgium (0-0-6).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- USA have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium is priced at 2.774.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts USA at 34%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Belgium at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-3.
The market frames this as a close contest. USA is priced at 2.713. The draw is priced at 3.495. Belgium is priced at 2.774.
Belgium have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
USA have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium are on 2 wins in a row.
USA average 3 goals per game this season. USA average 59% possession. Belgium average 5 goals per game this season. Belgium average 54% possession.
The model gives 93% for both teams to score. The model gives 96% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, USA or Belgium?
Our model rates Belgium as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for USA vs Belgium?
A scoreline around 2-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 USA wins, 0 draws, 6 Belgium wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.