UEFA Nations League

Finland vs Belarus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Finlandvs

Belarus

Our predictionFinland to win

Model score: Medium · 40/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Finland at 48%. The model leans toward Finland. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Belarus.
+The head-to-head record favours Finland (3-2-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Finland48%

Draw27%

2 · Belarus25%

1 · FinlandDraw2 · Belarus

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.14+7.0%

1X2Belarus4.24+2.7%

1X2Finland1.94-0.9%

1X2Draw3.30-1.8%

BTTSNo1.65-7.0%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

FinlandLLLWW

BelarusDWWWD

Team strength rating

Finland

Belarus

Most likely scorelines

1-111.9%

1-011.9%

2-19.5%

2-09.5%

0-17.4%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.60Finland

1.00Belarus

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score50%

Match DNA

Finland Belarus

Key points

Finland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Belarus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Finland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Finland is priced at 1.94.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Finland win1.94Fair (-0.9%)

Double chanceFinland or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	7	4	1
1	12	12	6	2
2	9	10	5	2
3	5	5	3
4	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Finland at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Belarus at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Finland. Finland is priced at 1.94. The draw is priced at 3.3. Belarus is priced at 4.24.

Finland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Finland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Belarus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →