1. Koln vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
1. Kolnvs
TSG 1899 HoffenheimThe model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (2-4-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- 1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- 1. Koln have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.304.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts 1. Koln at 32%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. 1. Koln is priced at 2.92. The draw is priced at 3.62. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.304.
1. Koln have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
1. Koln have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, 1. Koln or TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for 1. Koln vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 1. Koln wins, 4 draws, 9 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 17 |  Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.