Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elversbergvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 61%. The model leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Elversberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elversberg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Elversberg at 18%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Elversberg is priced at 5.4. The draw is priced at 4.54. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 1.54.
Elversberg have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Elversberg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elversberg or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Bayer 04 Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elversberg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Elversberg wins, 0 draws, 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a46569f5e99bd05c646de30 |
| 17 | Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.