Middlesbrough vs Wrexham: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Middlesbrough at 55%. The model leans toward Middlesbrough. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Middlesbrough are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Wrexham are dealing with notable absentees.
- +The head-to-head record favours Middlesbrough (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Middlesbrough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Wrexham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Middlesbrough will be without Conway, Jones Al., Bangura, McGree, Joseph, Strelec D., Peart-Harris.
- Wrexham will be without Lee E., Hardie, Sheaf, Windass.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Middlesbrough at 55%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Wrexham at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Middlesbrough. Middlesbrough is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 3.82. Wrexham is priced at 4.46.
Middlesbrough have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Middlesbrough have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Wrexham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Middlesbrough or Wrexham?
Our model rates Middlesbrough as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Middlesbrough wins, 2 draws, 0 Wrexham wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.