Finn Harps vs Treaty United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Finn Harpsvs
Treaty UnitedThe model puts Finn Harps at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Finn Harps have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Treaty United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Finn Harps have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Finn Harps is priced at 2.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Finn Harps at 36%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Treaty United at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Finn Harps is priced at 2.49. The draw is priced at 3.32. Treaty United is priced at 2.45.
Finn Harps have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Treaty United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Finn Harps have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Treaty United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Finn Harps or Treaty United?
Our model rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Finn Harps wins, 1 draws, 2 Treaty United wins.
Odds movement
League table
Ireland. Division 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cork City | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 43:11 | 54 |
| 2 |  University College Dublin | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 36:21 | 36 |
| 3 |  Bray Wanderers | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 40:30 | 34 |
| 4 |  Cobh Ramblers | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 25:30 | 31 |
| 5 |  Longford Town | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 23:27 | 28 |
| 6 |  Wexford Youths | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 25:30 | 27 |
| 7 |  Kerry FC | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 8 |  Athlone Town | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 19:27 | 24 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 20:37 | 22 |
| 10 | Treaty United | 22 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 21:34 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.