Gnistan vs Mariehamn: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gnistanvs
MariehamnThe model puts Gnistan at 69%. The model leans toward Gnistan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gnistan.
- −The head-to-head record favours Mariehamn (0-1-5).
- −Gnistan are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Gnistan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mariehamn have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gnistan will be without Kosmo Launiala, Lyberopoulos, Bashkirov.
- Mariehamn will be without Dosis.
- Gnistan is priced at 1.32.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gnistan at 69%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Mariehamn at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Gnistan. Gnistan is priced at 1.32. The draw is priced at 5.3. Mariehamn is priced at 8.2.
Mariehamn have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gnistan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Mariehamn have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gnistan or Mariehamn?
Our model rates Gnistan as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Gnistan wins, 1 draws, 5 Mariehamn wins.
Match statistics
Gnistan
- 1Kraninks
- 4Costa
- 10Latonen
- 14Eremenko S.
- 15Europaeus
- 17Adeleke A.
- 23Ylatupa
- 24Гнану
- 26Eremenko R.
- 27Ханнула
- 67Obileye
- Kosmo Launiala (Missing Player)
- Lyberopoulos (Missing Player)
- Bashkirov (Missing Player)
Mariehamn
- 2Nurmi N.
- 7Larsson
- 10Dahlstrom S.
- 16Huttunen
- 18Stroud
- 20Patut
- 28Nissinen J.
- 31Ngulube
- 32Riikonen
- 38Amankwah Y.
- 43Andersson
- Dosis (Questionable)
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 27:15 | 30 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 15 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 23:12 | 30 |
| 3 |  AC Oulu | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 4 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21:11 | 24 |
| 5 |  HJK | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 25:17 | 22 |
| 6 | Gnistan | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Turun Palloseura | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:16 | 19 |
| 8 |  Lahti | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:15 | 16 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25:29 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18:22 | 14 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15:32 | 11 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 14 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6:29 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.