AF Elbasani vs BATE Borisov: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AF Elbasanivs
BATE BorisovThe model puts AF Elbasani at 57%. The model leans toward AF Elbasani. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- BATE Borisov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AF Elbasani is priced at 1.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AF Elbasani at 57%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts BATE Borisov at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward AF Elbasani. AF Elbasani is priced at 1.635. The draw is priced at 3.72. BATE Borisov is priced at 5.19.
BATE Borisov have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 33% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AF Elbasani or BATE Borisov?
Our model rates AF Elbasani as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AF Elbasani vs BATE Borisov?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.