France vs Morocco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
MoroccoThe model puts France at 61%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours France (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 1.621.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 61%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Morocco at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward France. France is priced at 1.621. The draw is priced at 4.045. Morocco is priced at 6.6.
France have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
France have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. France are on 5 wins in a row. Morocco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Morocco?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Morocco?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 France wins, 1 draws, 0 Morocco wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.