France vs Morocco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
MoroccoThe model puts France at 65%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +France score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +France creates more chances (18 vs 11 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours France (3-2-0).
- +Morocco are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France will be without Tchuameni.
- Morocco will be without Aguerd, Saibari I., Ezzalzouli.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 65%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Morocco at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward France. France is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 4.065. Morocco is priced at 7.12.
France have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
France have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. France are on 5 wins in a row. Morocco have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco are on 4 wins in a row.
France average 3 goals per game this season. France average 56% possession. Morocco average 2 goals per game this season. Morocco average 59% possession.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Morocco?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Morocco?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 France wins, 2 draws, 0 Morocco wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.