PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
PSV Eindhovenvs
Fortuna SittardThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 74%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Fortuna Sittard.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fortuna Sittard (0-2-13).
- −PSV Eindhoven are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Fortuna Sittard are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- PSV Eindhoven have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven will be without Veerman J., Dest, Driouech C., Schouten J..
- Fortuna Sittard will be without Байрам Рамазан, Moussa Gbemou, Simons, Marquez I., Мишю.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.175.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 74%. The model puts the draw at 11%. The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 15%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.175. The draw is priced at 7.8. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 13.5.
Fortuna Sittard have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
PSV Eindhoven have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, PSV Eindhoven or Fortuna Sittard?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Fortuna Sittard?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 0 PSV Eindhoven wins, 2 draws, 13 Fortuna Sittard wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.