Netherlands. Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Sparta Rotterdamvs

Feyenoord

Our predictionFeyenoord to win

Model score: Medium · 58/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Feyenoord at 54%. The model leans toward Feyenoord. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Sparta Rotterdam (10-4-1).
+Recent form favours Sparta Rotterdam.
−Feyenoord are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Sparta Rotterdam25%Draw21%2 · Feyenoord54%

1 · Sparta RotterdamDraw2 · Feyenoord

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.34+11.1%

1X2Sparta Rotterdam4.56+3.8%

1X2Feyenoord1.69-1.8%

1X2Draw4.12-2.0%

BTTSYes1.53-11.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Sparta RotterdamLLLLW

FeyenoordDDLLL

Team strength rating

Sparta Rotterdam

Feyenoord

Most likely scorelines

0-112.4%

1-111.9%

0-29.9%

1-29.5%

0-07.7%

1-07.4%

Expected goals

0.96Sparta Rotterdam

1.60Feyenoord

Over 2.5 goals47%

Both teams to score49%

Match DNA

Sparta Rotterdam Feyenoord

Key points

Sparta Rotterdam have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Feyenoord have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sparta Rotterdam have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sparta Rotterdam will be without Baas.
Feyenoord will be without Beelen, Bos, Moder, Nieuwkoop.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Feyenoord win1.69Fair (-1.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	12	10	5	2
1	7	12	10	5	2
2	4	6	5	2
3	1	2	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Sparta Rotterdam at 25%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Feyenoord at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Feyenoord. Sparta Rotterdam is priced at 4.56. The draw is priced at 4.12. Feyenoord is priced at 1.69.

Sparta Rotterdam have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Feyenoord have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Sparta Rotterdam have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Feyenoord have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Sparta Rotterdam or Feyenoord?

Our model rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 10 Sparta Rotterdam wins, 4 draws, 1 Feyenoord wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 4.56 Draw 4.12 Away 1.69

Match statistics

Player of the matchJusteFeyenoord7.9