Groningen vs Utrecht: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Groningenvs
UtrechtThe model puts Groningen at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Groningen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Utrecht (3-4-8).
- −Groningen are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Utrecht are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Groningen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Utrecht have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Groningen will be without Jeng, Resink, Zawada O..
- Utrecht will be without Agougil, Engwanda, Jensen, Йонатанс, Ohio.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Groningen at 45%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Utrecht at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Groningen. Groningen is priced at 2.19. The draw is priced at 3.48. Utrecht is priced at 3.22.
Groningen have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Utrecht have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Groningen have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Utrecht have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Groningen or Utrecht?
Our model rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Groningen vs Utrecht?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Groningen wins, 4 draws, 8 Utrecht wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Groningen
- 1Vaessen
- 2Prins
- 3Blokzijl
- 5Rente
- 8де Йонге
- 9Willumsson B.
- 14Schreuders
- 17van der Werff
- 18Land
- 24Clement P.
- 26van Bergen
- Jeng (Missing Player)
- Resink (Missing Player)
- Zawada O. (Missing Player)
Utrecht
- 2Horemans S.
- 8Overeem J.
- 9Min
- 10Cathline
- 11Alarcon
- 20De Wit D.
- 23Vesterlund Nielsen
- 25Brouwer M.
- 44Eerdhuijzen M.
- 53Pohl
- 92Zagre A.
- Agougil (Missing Player)
- Engwanda (Missing Player)
- Jensen (Missing Player)
- Йонатанс (Missing Player)
- Ohio (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedGroningen make it count (Willumsson B. (8')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Groningen make it count (Willumsson B. (34')). It's 2–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Groningen 2 – 0 Utrecht.
Groningen make it count (van Bergen (48')). It's 3–0 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (3–0)
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  N.E.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.