N.E.C. vs Telstar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
N.E.C.vs
TelstarThe model puts N.E.C. at 64%. The model leans toward N.E.C.. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −N.E.C. are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- N.E.C. have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Telstar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- N.E.C. have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- N.E.C. will be without Schuurs, Nuytinck, Yassin Moslih.
- N.E.C. is priced at 1.445.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts N.E.C. at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Telstar at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward N.E.C.. N.E.C. is priced at 1.445. The draw is priced at 4.92. Telstar is priced at 6.3.
N.E.C. have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Telstar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
N.E.C. have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Telstar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, N.E.C. or Telstar?
Our model rates N.E.C. as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for N.E.C. vs Telstar?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 N.E.C. wins, 3 draws, 1 Telstar wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.