Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fortuna Dusseldorfvs
FreiburgThe model puts Freiburg at 70%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Freiburg.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fortuna Dusseldorf have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Dusseldorf have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Freiburg is priced at 1.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Fortuna Dusseldorf at 12%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Freiburg at 70%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Fortuna Dusseldorf is priced at 8.17. The draw is priced at 5.11. Freiburg is priced at 1.36.
Fortuna Dusseldorf have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Freiburg have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fortuna Dusseldorf have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Freiburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Freiburg are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fortuna Dusseldorf or Freiburg?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Freiburg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Fortuna Dusseldorf wins, 4 draws, 6 Freiburg wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Fortuna Dusseldorf
- 3Heintz D.
- 5Bouchama
- 6Muller
- 8Hendrix
- 9Hottmann
- 15Oberdorf
- 16Benger
- 22Lord L.
- 24Schleusener
- 25Zimmermann
- 28Rotkreuz
Freiburg
- 1Backhaus
- 3Lienhart Ph.
- 6Osterhage
- 8Eggestein
- 9Holer
- 14Suzuki
- 17Kubler
- 19Beste
- 28Ginter
- 32Grifo V.
- 33Makengo
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Freiburg make it count (Holer (18')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Fortuna Dusseldorf 0 – 1 Freiburg.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.