Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pumas UNAMvs
PachucaThe model puts Pachuca at 37%. The model puts the draw at 25%. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Pachuca.
- −The head-to-head record favours Pachuca (2-0-4).
- −Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Pachuca are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pachuca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pachuca have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model sees this as a close contest.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Pachuca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Pumas UNAM have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Pachuca have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Pumas UNAM have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Pumas UNAM will be without Antuna U., Duarte Ru., Macias J., Rico. Pachuca will be without Micolta, Mozo A..
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 53% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pumas UNAM or Pachuca?
Our model rates Pumas UNAM as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Pumas UNAM wins, 0 draws, 4 Pachuca wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Pumas UNAM
- 1Navas
- 6da Silva N.A.
- 7Lopez
- 16Calderon De Real
- 17Cordova
- 23Juninho Ol.
- 24Leone T.
- 28Carrasquilla
- 31Morales
- 45Vite
- 77Angulo Mosquera
- Antuna U. (Missing Player)
- Duarte Ru. (Questionable)
- Macias J. (Missing Player)
- Rico (Missing Player)
Pachuca
- 2Barreto S.
- 4dos Santos Bauermann
- 11Idrissi
- 12Garcia Bri.
- 14Jozabed Sanchez Ruiz
- 16Rivera Chri.
- 23Rondon S.
- 25Moreno
- 28Montiel
- 29Kenedy
- 188Rodriguez
- Micolta (Questionable)
- Mozo A. (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.