Monterrey vs Santos Laguna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Monterreyvs
Santos LagunaThe model puts Monterrey at 59%. The model leans toward Monterrey. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Santos Laguna (1-0-5).
- +Santos Laguna are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Monterrey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterrey have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Monterrey will be without Rodríguez Jor..
- Santos Laguna will be without Palacios, Lozano A..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Monterrey at 59%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Santos Laguna at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Monterrey. Monterrey is priced at 1.55. The draw is priced at 4.3. Santos Laguna is priced at 5.12.
Monterrey have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Santos Laguna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Monterrey have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Monterrey are on 3 wins in a row. Santos Laguna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Monterrey or Santos Laguna?
Our model rates Monterrey as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Monterrey vs Santos Laguna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Monterrey wins, 0 draws, 5 Santos Laguna wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Monterrey
- 2Chavez R.
- 4Guzman
- 5Ambriz
- 8Torres O.
- 11Orellano
- 13Salcedo C.
- 17Corona Jes.
- 21Reyes L
- 22Cardenas L.
- 27De La Rosa Gonzalez
- 29Ocampos
- Rodríguez Jor. (Questionable)
Santos Laguna
- 2Amione
- 5Lopes
- 6Guemez
- 8Mariscal
- 9Di Yorio
- 10Bullaude
- 17Echeverria E.
- 21Villalba Fr.
- 22Picon
- 33Holguin
- 35Balanta K.
- Palacios (Missing Player)
- Lozano A. (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 15 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.