Leon vs Atlas Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leonvs
Atlas GuadalajaraThe model leans toward Leon. The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 26%. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Leon.
- +The head-to-head record favours Leon (3-2-1).
- −Leon are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atlas Guadalajara are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leon are on 2 wins in a row.
- Atlas Guadalajara have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlas Guadalajara will be without Cruz, Alatorre E., Serrato.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Leon are on 2 wins in a row. Leon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlas Guadalajara have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlas Guadalajara have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Atlas Guadalajara will be without Cruz, Alatorre E., Serrato.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leon or Atlas Guadalajara?
Our model rates Leon as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leon vs Atlas Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Leon wins, 2 draws, 1 Atlas Guadalajara wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Leon
- 2Gautier
- 6Beltran Cruz
- 7Moreno
- 11Diaz I.
- 20Echeverria R.
- 21Barreiro J.
- 23Garcia
- 26Reyes S.
- 27Cambindo
- 29Rebollar J.
- 99Rodriguez
- Estrada (Missing Player)
- Vegas S. (Questionable)
Atlas Guadalajara
- 3Ferrareis G.
- 12Vargas C.
- 15Barboza
- 19Mmaee R.
- 21Schlegel R.
- 25Rodriguez
- 26Rocha A.
- 27Rios De Alba
- 28Capasso
- 58Gonzalez A.
- 199Javier Hernandez
- Cruz (Questionable)
- Alatorre E. (Missing Player)
- Serrato (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atlas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Juarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.