Mexico. Liga MX

Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Atletico San Luisvs

Cruz Azul

Our predictionCruz Azul to win

Model score: Low · 34/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model leans toward Cruz Azul. The model puts Cruz Azul at 48%. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Atletico San Luis.
−The head-to-head record favours Atletico San Luis (5-0-1).
+Atletico San Luis are dealing with notable absentees.
−Cruz Azul are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Atletico San Luis29%Draw23%2 · Cruz Azul48%

1 · Atletico San LuisDraw2 · Cruz Azul

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Atletico San Luis4.09+6.2%

1X2Draw3.62-2.5%

1X2Cruz Azul1.81-3.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Atletico San LuisDWDWD

Cruz AzulLLWDL

Team strength rating

Atletico San Luis

Cruz Azul

Most likely scorelines

1-112.4%

0-111.2%

1-29.1%

1-08.4%

0-28.2%

0-07.6%

Expected goals

1.11Atletico San Luis

1.47Cruz Azul

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Atletico San Luis Cruz Azul

Key points

Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atletico San Luis have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atletico San Luis have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul will be without Paradela J., Morales.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Cruz Azul win1.81Fair (-3.7%)

Double chanceCruz Azul or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	11	8	4	1
1	8	12	9	4	2
2	5	7	5	2
3	2	3	2
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

Atletico San Luis have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruz Azul have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

Atletico San Luis have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruz Azul have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.

Atletico San Luis will be without Galdames, Lopez De Alba, Joao Pedro, Medina Jes., Juanpe. Cruz Azul will be without Paradela J., Morales.

The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

Cruz Azul is priced at 1.81. Atletico San Luis is priced at 4.09.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Atletico San Luis or Cruz Azul?

Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 5 Atletico San Luis wins, 0 draws, 1 Cruz Azul wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 4.13 Draw 3.64 Away 1.80

Match statistics

Player of the matchRotondiCruz Azul8.1