Juarez vs Puebla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Juarezvs
PueblaThe model leans toward Juarez. The model puts Juarez at 55%. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Puebla (1-2-3).
- −Juarez are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Puebla are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Juarez have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Juarez will be without Romero, Lopes.
- Puebla will be without Castilho, Maestro, Velasco K..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Juarez have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Puebla have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings. Juarez have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Juarez will be without Romero, Lopes. Puebla will be without Castilho, Maestro, Velasco K..
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 47% for both teams to score.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Juarez or Puebla?
Our model rates Juarez as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Juarez vs Puebla?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Juarez wins, 2 draws, 3 Puebla wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Juarez
- 1Jurado Roca
- 2Murillo J.
- 4Mayorga M.
- 5Garcia
- 6Monchu
- 11Rodriguez J.L.
- 18Martinez H.
- 19Estupinan O.
- 20Torres
- 26Manriquez
- 33Nevarez Pulgarin
- Romero (Questionable)
- Lopes (Missing Player)
Puebla
- 4Vargas Ju.
- 7Monarrez
- 11Gomez Dutra
- 15Tomas Almino Bastos Silva
- 16Ramires
- 20Martinez
- 24Organista
- 27Garnica
- 28Gutierrez Ri.
- 90Lucas
- 192Navarro
- Castilho (Questionable)
- Maestro (Questionable)
- Velasco K. (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pumas UNAM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Juarez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.