Connah's Quay Nomads vs Ballkani: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Connah's Quay Nomadsvs
BallkaniThe model puts Ballkani at 72%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ballkani is priced at 1.29.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Connah's Quay Nomads at 12%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Ballkani at 72%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Ballkani. Connah's Quay Nomads is priced at 8.65. The draw is priced at 5.45. Ballkani is priced at 1.29.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Connah's Quay Nomads or Ballkani?
Our model rates Ballkani as the most likely outcome at 72% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Connah's Quay Nomads vs Ballkani?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Odds movement
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.