Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Plymouth Argylevs
Exeter CityThe model puts Plymouth Argyle at 68%. The model leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Plymouth Argyle.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Exeter City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Plymouth Argyle have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Plymouth Argyle will be without Baidoo.
- Plymouth Argyle is priced at 1.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Plymouth Argyle at 68%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Exeter City at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Plymouth Argyle. Plymouth Argyle is priced at 1.38. The draw is priced at 4.9. Exeter City is priced at 7.18.
Plymouth Argyle have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Exeter City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Plymouth Argyle have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Exeter City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Plymouth Argyle or Exeter City?
Our model rates Plymouth Argyle as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Plymouth Argyle wins, 1 draws, 6 Exeter City wins.
Match statistics
Plymouth Argyle
- 0Cooper
- 0Hartridge
- 0Ross
- 0Mitchell
- 0Harding W.
- 0White
- 0Boateng
- 0Amaechi
- 0Curtis R.
- 0Pepple A.
- 0Oseni O.
- Baidoo (2)
Exeter City
- 0Bycroft
- 0Fitzwater
- 0Perry
- 0James
- 0Woodhouse
- 0Oluwabori
- 0Cummins
- 0Gordon J.
- 0Cole R.
- 0Cox
- 0Wareham
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.