Qarabag vs Vestri: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Qarabagvs
VestriThe model puts Qarabag at 85%. The model leans toward Qarabag. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vestri have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag is priced at 1.104.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 24 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 22 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 13 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Qarabag at 85%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Vestri at 4%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Qarabag. Qarabag is priced at 1.104. The draw is priced at 7.9. Vestri is priced at 26.
Vestri have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 15% for both teams to score. The model gives 33% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Qarabag or Vestri?
Our model rates Qarabag as the most likely outcome at 85% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Qarabag vs Vestri?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.