Atletic Club d'Escaldes vs Mornar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atletic Club d'Escaldesvs
MornarThe model puts Atletic Club d'Escaldes at 40%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atletic Club d'Escaldes is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Atletic Club d'Escaldes at 40%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Mornar at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Atletic Club d'Escaldes is priced at 2.34. The draw is priced at 3.35. Mornar is priced at 2.877.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletic Club d'Escaldes or Mornar?
Our model rates Atletic Club d'Escaldes as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletic Club d'Escaldes vs Mornar?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.