Pen-y-Bont vs Santa Coloma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pen-y-Bontvs
Santa ColomaThe model puts Santa Coloma at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pen-y-Bont have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Coloma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pen-y-Bont have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Santa Coloma is priced at 2.12.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Pen-y-Bont at 31%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Santa Coloma at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Santa Coloma. Pen-y-Bont is priced at 3.11. The draw is priced at 3.56. Santa Coloma is priced at 2.12.
Pen-y-Bont have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pen-y-Bont have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Coloma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pen-y-Bont or Santa Coloma?
Our model rates Santa Coloma as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pen-y-Bont vs Santa Coloma?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Pen-y-Bont wins, 1 draws, 0 Santa Coloma wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.