Heracles Almelo vs Groningen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Heracles Almelovs
GroningenThe model puts Groningen at 51%. The model leans toward Groningen. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Groningen.
- +The head-to-head record favours Groningen (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Heracles Almelo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heracles Almelo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Groningen is priced at 1.95.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Heracles Almelo at 26%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Groningen at 51%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Groningen. Heracles Almelo is priced at 3.515. The draw is priced at 3.7. Groningen is priced at 1.95.
Heracles Almelo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Groningen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Heracles Almelo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Heracles Almelo or Groningen?
Our model rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Heracles Almelo vs Groningen?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Heracles Almelo wins, 1 draws, 4 Groningen wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.