Stranraer vs Ayr United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stranraervs
Ayr UnitedThe model puts Ayr United at 63%. Ayr United is priced at 1.44. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ayr United.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
- Stranraer have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stranraer have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Ayr United at 63%. The market leans toward Ayr United.
Stranraer have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Stranraer have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Ayr United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stranraer or Ayr United?
Our model rates Ayr United as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stranraer vs Ayr United?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Stranraer wins, 1 draws, 2 Ayr United wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen of the South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Queen's Park | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Brora Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Kelty Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.