VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VfL Bochumvs
Hertha BSCThe model puts VfL Bochum at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours VfL Bochum.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VfL Bochum have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- VfL Bochum is priced at 2.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts VfL Bochum at 43%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Hertha BSC at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. VfL Bochum is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.42. Hertha BSC is priced at 3.005.
VfL Bochum have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Hertha BSC have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
VfL Bochum have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Hertha BSC have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VfL Bochum or Hertha BSC?
Our model rates VfL Bochum as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Hertha BSC?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 VfL Bochum wins, 3 draws, 2 Hertha BSC wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.