St. Pauli vs Greuther Furth: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Paulivs
Greuther FurthThe model puts St. Pauli at 52%. The model leans toward St. Pauli. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St. Pauli.
- −The head-to-head record favours Greuther Furth (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Pauli have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greuther Furth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Pauli is priced at 1.85.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Pauli at 52%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Greuther Furth at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward St. Pauli. St. Pauli is priced at 1.85. The draw is priced at 3.76. Greuther Furth is priced at 3.825.
St. Pauli have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Greuther Furth have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Pauli have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli are on 4 wins in a row. Greuther Furth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Pauli or Greuther Furth?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Pauli vs Greuther Furth?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 St. Pauli wins, 2 draws, 3 Greuther Furth wins.
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dynamo Dresden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  1. Magdeburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Holstein | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Hannover 96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Hertha BSC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Karlsruher | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  VfL Bochum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Energie Cottbus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Nurnberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Greuther Furth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | St. Pauli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  VfL Osnabruck | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  1. Heidenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.