Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong Warriors: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Eltham Redbacksvs
North Geelong WarriorsThe model puts Eltham Redbacks at 54%. The model leans toward Eltham Redbacks. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours North Geelong Warriors.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Eltham Redbacks have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- North Geelong Warriors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Eltham Redbacks have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Eltham Redbacks is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Eltham Redbacks at 54%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts North Geelong Warriors at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Eltham Redbacks. Eltham Redbacks is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 4.2. North Geelong Warriors is priced at 3.88.
Eltham Redbacks have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Eltham Redbacks have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. North Geelong Warriors have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. North Geelong Warriors are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Eltham Redbacks or North Geelong Warriors?
Our model rates Eltham Redbacks as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong Warriors?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Eltham Redbacks wins, 0 draws, 0 North Geelong Warriors wins.
Odds movement
League table
Australia. Victoria Premier League 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Melbourne Knights | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 35:16 | 41 |
| 2 |  Northcote City | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 34:20 | 39 |
| 3 |  Brunswick Juventus | 20 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 40:30 | 39 |
| 4 |  Melbourne Victory II | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 48:35 | 31 |
| 5 |  Bulleen Lions | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 32:26 | 29 |
| 6 |  Melbourne Srbija | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 24:21 | 29 |
| 7 | Eltham Redbacks | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 45:34 | 28 |
| 8 | North Geelong Warriors | 18 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 32:34 | 28 |
| 9 |  Manningham United | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33:38 | 26 |
| 10 |  Western United II | 20 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 42:50 | 25 |
| 11 |  Brunswick City | 19 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 35:41 | 23 |
| 12 |  Langwarrin | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 36:45 | 23 |
| 13 |  North Sunshine Eagles | 19 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 23:36 | 15 |
| 14 |  Port Melbourne Sharks | 19 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 10:43 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.