Lexington vs New Mexico United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lexingtonvs
New Mexico UnitedThe model puts Lexington at 59%. The model leans toward Lexington. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lexington.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lexington have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New Mexico United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lexington have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lexington is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lexington at 59%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts New Mexico United at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Lexington. Lexington is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 3.84. New Mexico United is priced at 4.765.
Lexington have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. New Mexico United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Lexington have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New Mexico United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lexington or New Mexico United?
Our model rates Lexington as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lexington vs New Mexico United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Lexington wins, 0 draws, 1 New Mexico United wins.
League table
USA. USL| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24:12 | 31 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30:21 | 26 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 21:14 | 24 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 25:22 | 24 |
| 5 |  Indy Eleven | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 18:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 15:15 | 20 |
| 7 |  Hartford Athletic | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12:13 | 19 |
| 8 |  Miami | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18:24 | 18 |
| 9 |  Rhode Island | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 23:18 | 16 |
| 10 |  Birmingham Legion | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brooklyn FC | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 15:24 | 12 |
| 12 |  Loudoun United | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17:28 | 11 |
| 13 |  Sporting Jacksonville | 15 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 19:41 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.