Bahia vs Chapecoense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bahiavs
ChapecoenseThe model puts Bahia at 69%. The model leans toward Bahia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bahia.
- +Bahia score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Bahia creates more chances (16 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Bahia controls more of the ball (57% vs 40%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Bahia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chapecoense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bahia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bahia is priced at 1.435.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bahia at 69%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Chapecoense at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Bahia. Bahia is priced at 1.435. The draw is priced at 4.78. Chapecoense is priced at 6.75.
Bahia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Chapecoense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bahia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chapecoense have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bahia average 2 goals per game this season. Bahia average 57% possession. Chapecoense average 1 goals per game this season. Chapecoense average 40% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bahia or Chapecoense?
Our model rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bahia vs Chapecoense?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Bahia wins, 1 draws, 3 Chapecoense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 | Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.