AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AEK Larnacavs
Beitar JerusalemThe model puts AEK Larnaca at 51%. The model leans toward AEK Larnaca. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AEK Larnaca have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AEK Larnaca is priced at 1.85.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts AEK Larnaca at 51%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Beitar Jerusalem at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward AEK Larnaca. AEK Larnaca is priced at 1.85. The draw is priced at 3.6. Beitar Jerusalem is priced at 3.985.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AEK Larnaca have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Beitar Jerusalem have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AEK Larnaca or Beitar Jerusalem?
Our model rates AEK Larnaca as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AEK Larnaca vs Beitar Jerusalem?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 AEK Larnaca wins, 1 draws, 0 Beitar Jerusalem wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.