France vs Spain: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
SpainThe model puts France at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours France (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 2.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 42%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Spain at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. France is priced at 2.41. The draw is priced at 3.33. Spain is priced at 3.33.
France have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Spain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
France have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Spain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
France average 3 goals per game this season. France average 54% possession. Spain average 1 goals per game this season. Spain average 61% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or Spain?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs Spain?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 France wins, 0 draws, 2 Spain wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.