Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
New York Red BullsThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 56%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Philadelphia Union.
- −New York Red Bulls score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours New York Red Bulls (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.67.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 56%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts New York Red Bulls at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.67. The draw is priced at 4.22. New York Red Bulls is priced at 4.58.
Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. New York Red Bulls have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. New York Red Bulls have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or New York Red Bulls?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Philadelphia Union wins, 1 draws, 4 New York Red Bulls wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.