Levadia vs Caernarfon Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Levadiavs
Caernarfon TownThe model puts Levadia at 70%. The model leans toward Levadia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Caernarfon Town.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Levadia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Caernarfon Town have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levadia is priced at 1.35.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Levadia at 70%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Caernarfon Town at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Levadia. Levadia is priced at 1.35. The draw is priced at 4.9. Caernarfon Town is priced at 7.8.
Caernarfon Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Levadia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Levadia are on 2 wins in a row. Caernarfon Town have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Levadia or Caernarfon Town?
Our model rates Levadia as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Levadia vs Caernarfon Town?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Levadia wins, 0 draws, 1 Caernarfon Town wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.