Santa Coloma vs Pen-y-Bont: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santa Colomavs
Pen-y-BontThe model puts Santa Coloma at 59%. The model leans toward Santa Coloma. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Santa Coloma.
- −The head-to-head record favours Pen-y-Bont (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Santa Coloma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pen-y-Bont have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Coloma is priced at 1.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santa Coloma at 59%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Pen-y-Bont at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Santa Coloma. Santa Coloma is priced at 1.62. The draw is priced at 3.74. Pen-y-Bont is priced at 5.29.
Pen-y-Bont have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Santa Coloma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Coloma are on 2 wins in a row. Pen-y-Bont have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santa Coloma or Pen-y-Bont?
Our model rates Santa Coloma as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santa Coloma vs Pen-y-Bont?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Santa Coloma wins, 1 draws, 2 Pen-y-Bont wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.