Decic vs Liepaja: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Decicvs
LiepajaThe model puts Liepaja at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liepaja.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Decic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liepaja have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Decic have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liepaja is priced at 2.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Decic at 35%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Liepaja at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Decic is priced at 2.57. The draw is priced at 3.4. Liepaja is priced at 2.53.
Decic have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Decic have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Liepaja have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Decic or Liepaja?
Our model rates Liepaja as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Decic vs Liepaja?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Decic wins, 0 draws, 0 Liepaja wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.