Mornar vs Atletic Club d'Escaldes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mornarvs
Atletic Club d'EscaldesThe model puts Mornar at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Atletic Club d'Escaldes.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Mornar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletic Club d'Escaldes have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mornar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Mornar is priced at 2.36.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Mornar at 38%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Atletic Club d'Escaldes at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Mornar is priced at 2.36. The draw is priced at 3.48. Atletic Club d'Escaldes is priced at 2.766.
Mornar have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Mornar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletic Club d'Escaldes have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mornar or Atletic Club d'Escaldes?
Our model rates Mornar as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mornar vs Atletic Club d'Escaldes?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Mornar wins, 0 draws, 0 Atletic Club d'Escaldes wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.