BATE Borisov vs AF Elbasani: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
BATE Borisovvs
AF ElbasaniThe model puts AF Elbasani at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- BATE Borisov have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AF Elbasani have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AF Elbasani is priced at 2.24.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts BATE Borisov at 31%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts AF Elbasani at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. BATE Borisov is priced at 3.115. The draw is priced at 3.26. AF Elbasani is priced at 2.24.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
BATE Borisov have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AF Elbasani have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, BATE Borisov or AF Elbasani?
Our model rates AF Elbasani as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for BATE Borisov vs AF Elbasani?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 BATE Borisov wins, 1 draws, 0 AF Elbasani wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.