Tijuana vs Leon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tijuanavs
LeonThe model puts Tijuana at 47%. The model leans toward Tijuana. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Tijuana.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tijuana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tijuana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tijuana is priced at 2.04.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tijuana at 47%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Leon at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tijuana. Tijuana is priced at 2.04. The draw is priced at 3.55. Leon is priced at 3.31.
Tijuana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Leon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tijuana have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Leon have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tijuana or Leon?
Our model rates Tijuana as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tijuana vs Leon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Tijuana wins, 1 draws, 3 Leon wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 12 | Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.