Pachuca vs Queretaro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pachucavs
QueretaroThe model puts Pachuca at 60%. The model leans toward Pachuca. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Pachuca.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pachuca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queretaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pachuca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pachuca is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pachuca at 60%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Queretaro at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pachuca. Pachuca is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 3.84. Queretaro is priced at 5.43.
Pachuca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Queretaro have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pachuca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Queretaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pachuca or Queretaro?
Our model rates Pachuca as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pachuca vs Queretaro?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Pachuca wins, 3 draws, 1 Queretaro wins.
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 2 | Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Toluca | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Puebla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Pumas UNAM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 3 |
| 11 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 | Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.