Cruz Azul vs Puebla: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cruz Azulvs
PueblaThe model puts Cruz Azul at 71%. The model leans toward Cruz Azul. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cruz Azul (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cruz Azul have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Puebla are on 2 wins in a row.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
- The model gives 35% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Cruz Azul at 71%. The model puts Puebla at 12%.
Cruz Azul have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Puebla have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cruz Azul have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Puebla are on 2 wins in a row.
The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cruz Azul or Puebla?
Our model rates Cruz Azul as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cruz Azul vs Puebla?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Cruz Azul wins, 1 draws, 1 Puebla wins.
Odds movement
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Club Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Club America | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 | Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 11 |  Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  Juarez | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Pumas UNAM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.