Universidad Catolica Santiago vs Deportes La Serena: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Universidad Catolica Santiagovs
Deportes La SerenaThe model puts Universidad Catolica Santiago at 65%. The model leans toward Universidad Catolica Santiago. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Universidad Catolica Santiago.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Universidad Catolica Santiago have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportes La Serena have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Universidad Catolica Santiago have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Universidad Catolica Santiago is priced at 1.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Universidad Catolica Santiago at 65%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Deportes La Serena at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Universidad Catolica Santiago. Universidad Catolica Santiago is priced at 1.46. The draw is priced at 4.35. Deportes La Serena is priced at 6.29.
Universidad Catolica Santiago have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportes La Serena have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Universidad Catolica Santiago have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportes La Serena have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Universidad Catolica Santiago or Deportes La Serena?
Our model rates Universidad Catolica Santiago as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Universidad Catolica Santiago vs Deportes La Serena?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Universidad Catolica Santiago wins, 1 draws, 3 Deportes La Serena wins.
League table
Chile. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo-Colo | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 29:12 | 36 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica Santiago | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 35:20 | 26 |
| 3 |  Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 22:18 | 24 |
| 5 |  Palestino | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23:21 | 24 |
| 6 |  Huachipato | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 23:22 | 23 |
| 7 |  Everton de Vina del Mar | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Nublense | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18:19 | 22 |
| 9 |  Deportes Limache | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 30:23 | 21 |
| 10 |  O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 19:22 | 20 |
| 11 |  Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:26 | 19 |
| 12 | Deportes La Serena | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 13 |  Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:21 | 16 |
| 14 |  Club Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 14:23 | 14 |
| 15 |  Cobresal | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 19:29 | 13 |
| 16 |  Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 14:28 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.