Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina del Mar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union La Caleravs
Everton de Vina del MarThe model puts Union La Calera at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Everton de Vina del Mar (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Everton de Vina del Mar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Union La Calera have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Union La Calera is priced at 2.395.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Union La Calera at 38%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Everton de Vina del Mar at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Union La Calera is priced at 2.395. The draw is priced at 3.04. Everton de Vina del Mar is priced at 3.06.
Union La Calera have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Everton de Vina del Mar have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Union La Calera have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Everton de Vina del Mar have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union La Calera or Everton de Vina del Mar?
Our model rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina del Mar?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Union La Calera wins, 1 draws, 4 Everton de Vina del Mar wins.
League table
Chile. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colo-Colo | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 29:12 | 36 |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica Santiago | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 35:20 | 26 |
| 3 |  Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 22:18 | 24 |
| 5 |  Palestino | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23:21 | 24 |
| 6 |  Huachipato | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 23:22 | 23 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina del Mar | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19:15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Nublense | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18:19 | 22 |
| 9 |  Deportes Limache | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 30:23 | 21 |
| 10 |  O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 19:22 | 20 |
| 11 |  Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13:26 | 19 |
| 12 |  Deportes La Serena | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 13 |  Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18:21 | 16 |
| 14 |  Club Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 14:23 | 14 |
| 15 |  Cobresal | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 19:29 | 13 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 14:28 | 12 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.