Ordabasy vs Elimai: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ordabasyvs
ElimaiThe model puts Ordabasy at 59%. The model leans toward Ordabasy. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Ordabasy.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ordabasy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elimai have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ordabasy have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ordabasy is priced at 1.639.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ordabasy at 59%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Elimai at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ordabasy. Ordabasy is priced at 1.639. The draw is priced at 3.965. Elimai is priced at 4.955.
Ordabasy have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Elimai have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ordabasy have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Elimai have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ordabasy or Elimai?
Our model rates Ordabasy as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ordabasy vs Elimai?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Ordabasy wins, 3 draws, 2 Elimai wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 30:12 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Astana | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 4 |  Okzhetpes | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22:24 | 27 |
| 5 | Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 6 |  Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14:15 | 26 |
| 7 |  Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14:19 | 21 |
| 9 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 10 |  Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 19:25 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kaysar | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13:20 | 18 |
| 13 |  Caspiy Aktau | 17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 15:22 | 17 |
| 14 |  Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 15 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.