Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk vs Aktobe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Altay Ust-Kamenogorskvs
AktobeThe model puts Aktobe at 46%. The model leans toward Aktobe. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Aktobe.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aktobe have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aktobe is priced at 2.109.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk at 27%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Aktobe at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Aktobe. Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk is priced at 3.465. The draw is priced at 3.32. Aktobe is priced at 2.109.
Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Aktobe have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Aktobe have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk or Aktobe?
Our model rates Aktobe as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk vs Aktobe?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk wins, 0 draws, 2 Aktobe wins.
Odds movement
League table
Kazakhstan. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 30:12 | 40 |
| 2 |  Kairat | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 34:12 | 39 |
| 3 |  Astana | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 4 |  Okzhetpes | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 22:24 | 27 |
| 5 |  Elimai | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24:19 | 26 |
| 6 |  Ulytau | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 14:15 | 26 |
| 7 | Aktobe | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 22:18 | 25 |
| 8 |  Jenis | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 14:19 | 21 |
| 9 |  Atyrau | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12:13 | 18 |
| 10 |  Zhetysu | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 21:25 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tobol Kostanay | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 19:25 | 18 |
| 12 |  Kaysar | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13:20 | 18 |
| 13 |  Caspiy Aktau | 17 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 15:22 | 17 |
| 14 | Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12:18 | 16 |
| 15 |  Kyzylzhar | 17 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 16 |  Irtysh Pavlodar | 17 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 14:22 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.