Falkirk vs Ayr United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Falkirkvs
Ayr UnitedThe model puts Falkirk at 61%. The model leans toward Falkirk. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Ayr United.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Falkirk have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Falkirk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Falkirk is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Falkirk at 61%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Ayr United at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Falkirk. Falkirk is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.2. Ayr United is priced at 6.17.
Falkirk have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Ayr United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Falkirk have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Falkirk or Ayr United?
Our model rates Falkirk as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Falkirk vs Ayr United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Falkirk wins, 2 draws, 2 Ayr United wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. League Cup| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Kelty Hearts | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:1 | 2 |
| 3 |  Queen of the South | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Brora Rangers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.