Bonsucesso vs Madureira: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bonsucessovs
MadureiraThe model puts Bonsucesso at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Madureira.
- −The head-to-head record favours Madureira (0-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Bonsucesso have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Madureira have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bonsucesso is priced at 2.21.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bonsucesso at 39%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Madureira at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Bonsucesso is priced at 2.21. The draw is priced at 3.06. Madureira is priced at 3.115.
Madureira have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bonsucesso have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Madureira have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bonsucesso or Madureira?
Our model rates Bonsucesso as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bonsucesso vs Madureira?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Bonsucesso wins, 2 draws, 3 Madureira wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.