France vs England: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Francevs
EnglandThe model puts France at 48%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +France creates more chances (17 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 2.107.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts France at 48%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts England at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward France. France is priced at 2.107. The draw is priced at 3.695. England is priced at 3.695.
France have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. England have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
France have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. England have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
France average 2 goals per game this season. France average 53% possession. England average 2 goals per game this season. England average 52% possession.
The model gives 68% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, France or England?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for France vs England?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 France wins, 1 draws, 3 England wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.